2010年10月31日日曜日

CAPのいない奇妙な空模様

今日、昭和17年10月27日に行われた空戦は全部で28回で、詳細は下記のコンバットレポートの通りですが、まとめると表のようになります。この表を見てとても特徴的なのは、双方ともほとんどCAPを上げていない点です。あしたのジョーではありませんが、ノーガード戦法です。

目標 地域 支配今日の空襲回数うちsweepうちAF attackCAP
Akyab ビルマ 連合422あり
Imphal ビルマ 連合22なし
Cooktown 豪東北 連合422なし
Nookbah 豪西北 連合211なし
Sian 中国 連合33なし
Magwe ビルマ 日本11なし
Mandalay ビルマ 日本523なし
Meiktila ビルマ 日本651なし
Myitkyina ビルマ 日本11なし

私がCAPを上げていない理由は、sweeperがCAPに対して圧倒的に有利なので、どうせCAPを上げていても、相手の戦闘機のexpとスキルを上昇させる材料にしかならないと感じるからです。連合軍側がCAPを上げていないのも同じ理由からだと思います。例外的にAkyabにはCAPが上がっていましたが、Akyabへはかなり久しぶりの空襲だったからかなと思います。でも今日の空戦で飛行機が破壊されているのはこのAkyabだけというのが、現在の状況を象徴していますね。
sweeperがCAPに対して圧倒的に有利になってしまうのは、周知の通りの高度の問題が一つ。もう一つは、地上レーダーが機能していない問題があるからでしょう。現状だと敵襲は目視での探知なので、来襲まで長くても10分くらいしか余裕がありません。そこからスクランブルしても、上昇途中で敵のsweeperはdiveしての攻撃をかけることができます。これでは高度差の不利がもろに響いてしまいます。次のパッチで地上レーダーの問題が解決すれば、優秀なレーダーを持つ連合軍側は数十分の余裕を持ってスクランブルできるようになるでしょうから、現在のようにCAPが一方的に不利な戦いをすることはなくなるでしょう。でも、日本側の地上レーダーにもそれを期待できるのかどうかは分かりません。
こういう奇妙な状況下でもやはり連合軍の方が有利だと感じます。Flakの性能の差、また爆撃機の爆弾搭載量とDurabilityの格差とから、日本側の方が空襲の際の高度をより高くせざるを得ません。中国戦線では6000フィートで存分に爆撃できますが、それ以外の連合軍基地に対してはFlakが少ないところで1万1千フィート、3桁のGunがある基地には1万6千フィートくらいでしょうか。こうするとFlakで落とされることは減りますが、対空砲火にさらされると爆撃の命中率が低下する効果があるのかも知れません。また、高く飛ぶほど爆弾の命中率が低下するので、相手の飛行場に与えるダメージも日本側の方が劣ります。しかも破壊された飛行場の修復能力にもかなりの差がありますから、今日爆撃を受けた飛行場でも、連合軍側のAkyab, CookTown, Imphalは飛行機がたくさんいますが、日本側のMagwe以外のMandalay, Meiktila, Myitkyinaには地上での破壊を避けるために少数の機体しか配置していません。
今日は、珍しく日本の潜水艦の魚雷の不発もみられました。DD相手だとはずすことのほうがずっと多いのに、せっかく当てて不発とは。


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Oct 27, 42
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Night Air attack on Cooktown , at 92,137
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged

Runway hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
      18 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 11000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Brisbane  at 97,160

Japanese Ships
      SS I-175, hits 1

Allied Ships
      DD Walke
SS I-175 launches 4 torpedoes
DD Walke fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Walke attacking submerged sub ....
DD Walke cannot reach attack position over SS I-175
DD Walke fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Walke fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Walke attacking submerged sub ....
DD Walke is out of ASW ammo
DD Walke is out of ASW ammo
DD Walke is out of ASW ammo
DD Walke is out of ASW ammo
Escort abandons search for sub
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 41,740 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 42
Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 1
No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
      P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
      42 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 36740 feet

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/75th FS with P-40E Warhawk (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      (1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
      0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
      Group patrol altitude is 19000 
      Time for all group planes to reach interception is 3 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Imphal , at 60,40
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 43,500 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes
Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 37
  
No Japanese losses
Aircraft Attacking:
      37 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 38500 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 28,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Hurricane IIc Trop x 15

No Allied losses
Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Hurricane IIc Trop sweeping at 27000 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 48 NM, estimated altitude 38,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes
  
Allied aircraft
      Hurricane IIb Trop x 13
No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      13 x Hurricane IIb Trop sweeping at 36000 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47 
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 41,600 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Hurricane IIc Trop x 15
No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Hurricane IIc Trop sweeping at 35600 feet * --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Myitkyina , at 64,42
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 21

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      21 x P-40E Warhawk sweeping at 29000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47 
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 40,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes 

Allied aircraft
      P-38F Lightning x 18
No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      18 x P-38F Lightning sweeping at 36000 feet 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45
Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 27

Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
      P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
      25 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 11000 feet * 

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/75th FS with P-40E Warhawk (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      (4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
      0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 4 out of immediate contact.
      Group patrol altitude is 19000 
      Time for all group planes to reach interception is 34 minutes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Cooktown , at 92,137
Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 22 NM, estimated altitude 37,250 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      A6M3 Zero x 32
No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      32 x A6M3 Zero sweeping at 36250 feet 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Imphal , at 60,40
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 43,500 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
       4 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 38500 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Blenheim IV x 36
      Hurricane IIc Trop x 3
      P-38F Lightning x 5
No Allied losses

Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
      13 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb
      10 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb
      13 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Blenheim IV x 22
      B-17F Fortress x 16
Allied aircraft losses
      B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged

Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 16

Aircraft Attacking:
      10 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb
      12 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb
      16 x B-17F Fortress bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  8 x 500 lb GP Bomb 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Blenheim IV x 13

Allied aircraft losses
      Blenheim IV: 1 damaged
Runway hits 5

Aircraft Attacking:
      13 x Blenheim IV bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47
Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 21 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes
Allied aircraft
      Hudson IIIa x 12
      B-17E Fortress x 29


Allied aircraft losses
      B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
      10 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
  
Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 68

Aircraft Attacking:
      12 x Hudson IIIa bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb
      13 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
      16 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 12000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  8 x 500 lb GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47
Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 40 NM, estimated altitude 38,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Hurricane IIb Trop x 15

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Hurricane IIb Trop sweeping at 36000 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Meiktila , at 58,47
Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 45 NM, estimated altitude 38,600 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Hurricane IIc Trop x 15

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Hurricane IIc Trop sweeping at 35600 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46
Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 37 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
      P-38E Lightning x 23

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      23 x P-38E Lightning sweeping at 39000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47
Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 15

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x P-40E Warhawk sweeping at 19000 feet * 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Nookanbah , at 66,130
Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 14
No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      14 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 6000 feet *  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Cooktown , at 92,137
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 24

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      24 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 11000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Nookanbah , at 66,130
Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      G3M2 Nell x 22
Japanese aircraft losses
      G3M2 Nell: 2 damaged
  
Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 36

Aircraft Attacking:
      22 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb,  4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Cooktown , at 92,137
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 45 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      G4M1 Betty x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
      G4M1 Betty: 3 damaged

Allied ground losses:
      3 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 11

Aircraft Attacking:
      36 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 11000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb,  4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Sian , at 83,41
Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-Ic Sally x 14
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 16
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 3
Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged
  
Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 24

Aircraft Attacking:
      14 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      16 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       3 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Sian , at 83,41
Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 49 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 24

No Japanese losses
Allied ground losses:
      22 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
      12 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      12 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Sian  ...
Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Sian  ...
Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Sian  ...
Also attacking 76th Chinese Corps ... 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 30
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 9
Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 1
  
Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
       9 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 11000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      15 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 11000 feet * 

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/75th FS with P-40E Warhawk (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      (1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
      1 plane(s) intercepting now.
      Group patrol altitude is 19000 
      Raid is overhead 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Sian , at 83,41
Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 34 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 18
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
      18 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 6
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 11

Allied aircraft
      P-40E Warhawk x 3
Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
      P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
  
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
      11 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 11000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/75th FS with P-40E Warhawk (3 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      (3 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
      3 plane(s) intercepting now.
      Group patrol altitude is 19000 
      Raid is overhead
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