2012年3月13日火曜日

真珠湾の防備は弱め

やはり比較的平穏な日々が続いていますが、昭和17年4月30日、オーストラリア西岸のパース港沖でI-28がイギリスの貨物船 xAK Tai Sangを雷撃して撃沈しました。両軍通じて4月26日以来4日ぶりの艦船の沈没です。
その後、シドニーの東方沖でRO-65がAG Arcticを発見。本日2隻目の戦果かと思ったのですが、攻撃は実施されず。”Captain of SS RO-65 elects not to launch torpedoes at this target”と報告されました。このやりとりをみて感じたこと。

  1. xAKLではなくてAGですから充分に雷撃に値する目標だと思います。また護衛する艦艇の存在は報告されていないので、独航していたと考えるべきでしょうから、どうして攻撃してくれなかったのか不思議。
  2. リプレイは連合軍側と日本側とおなじものをみているはずですよね。そうだとすると、潜水艦の存在を暴露しただけで戦果がないのですから大損。
  3. 飛行部隊や陸兵の動員が忙しくPPは常に不足しているので、潜水艦パトロールTFに新たに司令官を任命するような贅沢はしていられません、しかしこのRO-65は開戦時にすでにTFに編成されたいたようで、艦長とは別にTFの司令官がいました。艦長はKatsuma P.という姓名なのでランダムに生成されたリーダーのようですが、TF司令官のYoshimatsu Tamoriさんは吉松田守大佐という実在の人物のようです。でも吉松田守大佐よりもランダム生成のリーダーの方がNav, Aggともに高いというのは悲しい。
  4. 攻撃を見送る判断をした”Captain of SS RO-65”というのは文字通りRO-65の艦長なんでしょうか?もしそうだとすると、PPをつかってAggの高い人を司令官に任命する意味はないですよね。PPをつかうなら艦長(TF司令官を別に任命しなけれ、ふつうは潜水艦1隻で構成される潜水艦パトロールTFの司令官には艦長が自動的に就任)の方を交替させるべきということになります。また、この二人のAggはそれぞれ61と79ですから変更しても攻撃してくれないことはあるのかもしれません。
今日はSIGINTにパールハーバーの名前が2つ挙っていて、昨日のSIGINTともあわせてパールハーバーのDLが2/1となりました。覗いてみると、在泊艦艇が49隻もいます。でも、戦闘機は25機、爆撃機は4機、支援機種は4機と飛行機はかなり少なめです。もう一度真珠湾攻撃をしてみたくなってしまうような数字ですが、 どの程度の信頼性がある数値なんでしょうね。まあ、Flakの被害が馬鹿にならないでしょうから、実行するまでの勇気はありませんが。


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Apr 30, 42
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Submarine attack near Perth  at 44,147

Japanese Ships
      SS I-28

Allied Ships
      xAK Tai Sang, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy damage



xAK Tai Sang is sighted by SS I-28
SS I-28 launches 2 torpedoes at xAK Tai Sang


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Trincomalee  at 32,49

Japanese Ships
      SS I-157

Allied Ships
      TK Athelmere
      DD Kortenaer



SS I-157 is sighted by escort
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kortenaer fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


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ASW attack near Pearl Harbor  at 186,95

Japanese Ships
      SS I-7

Allied Ships
      APD Colhoun
      APD Gregory



SS I-7 is located by APD Colhoun
I-7 diving deep ....
APD Gregory fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Gregory fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Gregory fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Gregory fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Gregory fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Lord Howe Island  at 100,167

Japanese Ships
      SS RO-65

Allied Ships
      AG Arctic



AG Arctic is sighted by SS RO-65
Captain of SS RO-65 elects not to launch torpedoes at this target


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Pearl Harbor  at 186,95

Japanese Ships
      SS I-7

Allied Ships
      DE Parrott



SS I-7 is located by DE Parrott
DE Parrott attacking submerged sub ....
DE Parrott loses contact with SS I-7
DE Parrott is out of ASW ammo
DE Parrott is out of ASW ammo
DE Parrott is out of ASW ammo
DE Parrott fails to find sub, continues to search...
DE Parrott fails to find sub, continues to search...
DE Parrott fails to find sub, continues to search...
DE Parrott fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 20th Group Army, at 78,53 , near Hengyang

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 22 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 9



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
       9 x Ki-43-Ic Oscar sweeping at 20000 feet



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Morning Air attack on 99th Chinese Corps, at 78,53 , near Hengyang

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-Ic Sally x 18
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 104
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 11



Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-Ic Sally: 1 damaged
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 3 damaged


Allied ground losses:
      1045 casualties reported
         Squads: 5 destroyed, 63 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 73 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
      Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)


Aircraft Attacking:
      14 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      18 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      16 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      14 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      23 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      19 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       7 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       7 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       4 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 87th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 28th New Chinese Division ...
Also attacking 95th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 37th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 58th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 4th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 53rd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 46th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 94th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 8th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 60th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 78th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 79th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 25th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 65th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 99th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 87th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 95th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 37th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 99th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 95th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 37th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 58th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 99th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 87th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 95th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 37th Chinese Corps ...


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Morning Air attack on Asiatic Fleet , at 79,76 (Clark Field)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 65 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 18 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 37



Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 2 damaged


Allied ground losses:
      30 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
      17 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      20 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking USAFFE  ...
Also attacking Asiatic Fleet  ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 1st Chinese Corps, at 85,45 (Nanyang)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 23 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-30 Ann x 9



Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-30 Ann: 1 damaged


Allied ground losses:
      5 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
       9 x Ki-30 Ann bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 92nd Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 1st Chinese Corps ...


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Morning Air attack on 7th Chinese Corps, at 91,50 , near Kiangtu

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-30 Ann x 12



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
      6 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
      12 x Ki-30 Ann bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 48th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 7th Chinese Corps ...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 20th Group Army, at 78,53 , near Hengyang

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 1



No Japanese losses



Aircraft Attacking:
       1 x Ki-43-Ic Oscar sweeping at 20000 feet



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 18th Chinese Corps, at 78,53 , near Hengyang

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-Ic Sally x 10
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 11



No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
      103 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
      10 x Ki-21-Ic Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 20th Division, at 55,50 (Prome)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 2



Allied aircraft
      Wellington Ic x 14


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
      Wellington Ic: 4 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
      27 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Aircraft Attacking:
      14 x Wellington Ic bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Ground Attack:  4 x 500 lb GP Bomb

CAP engaged:
64th Sentai with Ki-43-Ic Oscar (2 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
      (2 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
      2 plane(s) intercepting now.
      Group patrol altitude is 10000 
      Raid is overhead



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Nookanbah , at 66,130 

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 36 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      A6M2 Zero x 16
      G3M2 Nell x 9
      G4M1 Betty x 24



No Japanese losses



Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 12

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb,  4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
       9 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb,  4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
       9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb,  4 x 60 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Daly Waters , at 76,131 

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 31 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 12



No Japanese losses



Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 17

Aircraft Attacking:
      12 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on 18th British Division, at 55,49 , near Prome

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 19
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 24



Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged


Allied ground losses:
      33 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled


Aircraft Attacking:
      19 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Kweilin (76,54)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 12105 troops, 102 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 868

Defending force 51657 troops, 360 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1821

Japanese ground losses:
      9 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Assaulting units:
    17th Division
    104th Division

Defending units:
    21st Chinese Corps
    50th Chinese Corps
    54th Chinese Corps
    2nd Prov Chinese Corps
    69th Chinese Corps
    64th Chinese Corps
    12th Chinese Corps
    49th Chinese Corps
    62nd Chinese Corps
    2nd Reserve Division
    2nd Chinese Base Force
    16th Group Army
    10th Group Army
    3rd War Area 
    57th AT Gun Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 79,55 (near Hengyang)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 12758 troops, 102 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 459

Defending force 23351 troops, 115 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 610

Japanese ground losses:
      17 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
      7 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
    116th Division

Defending units:
    63rd Chinese Corps
    70th Chinese Corps
    86th Chinese Corps
    12th Group Army
    7th War Area 
    11th Chinese Base Force
    32nd Group Army
    28th Chinese Corps
    16th Construction Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Nanyang (85,45)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 57726 troops, 527 guns, 187 vehicles, Assault Value = 2054

Defending force 182910 troops, 864 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5830


Allied ground losses:
      14 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
    13th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    110th Division
    35th Division
    37th Division
    32nd Division
    6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    12th Army
    Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
    11th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
    96th Chinese Corps
    92nd Chinese Corps
    36th Chinese Corps
    55th Chinese Corps
    41st Chinese Corps
    42nd Chinese Corps
    47th Chinese Corps
    33rd Chinese Corps
    23rd Chinese Corps
    76th Chinese Corps
    1st Chinese Corps
    90th Chinese Corps
    61st Chinese Corps
    82nd Chinese Corps
    19th Chinese Corps
    57th Chinese Corps
    30th Chinese Corps
    43rd Chinese Corps
    120th Red Chinese Division
    34th Separate Brigade
    115th Red Chinese Division
    16th Chinese Corps
    3rd Chinese Corps
    17th Chinese Corps
    77th Chinese Corps
    4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
    7th Group Army
    19th Chinese Base Force
    6th Group Army
    18th Group Army
    22nd Group Army
    Red Chinese Army
    4th Group Army
    8th Group Army
    2nd Group Army
    5th War Area 
    34th Group Army
    4th Construction Regiment


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Mandalay (59,46)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 47146 troops, 629 guns, 330 vehicles, Assault Value = 1387

Defending force 13985 troops, 94 guns, 175 vehicles, Assault Value = 307

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 660 

Allied adjusted defense: 277 

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 1) 

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: 

Japanese ground losses:
      1110 casualties reported
         Squads: 4 destroyed, 90 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled


Allied ground losses:
      1444 casualties reported
         Squads: 20 destroyed, 140 disabled
         Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 28 disabled
         Engineers: 4 destroyed, 10 disabled
      Guns lost 20 (7 destroyed, 13 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 28 (9 destroyed, 19 disabled)


Assaulting units:
    21st Division
    Imperial Guards Division
    21st Infantry Regiment
    2nd Division
    3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
    55th Mountain Gun Regiment
    35th Fld AA Gun Co 
    15th JAAF Base Force
    15th Army
    9th RF Gun Battalion
    5th Field Artillery Regiment
    17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    1st RF Gun Battalion
    1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
    23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    2nd RF Gun Battalion
    46th JNAF AF Unit 

Defending units:
    75th Indian Brigade
    2nd Royal Tank Regiment
    63rd Indian Brigade
    107th RAF Base Force
    221 Group RAF 
    103rd RAF Base Force
    100th RAF Base Force
    Upper Burma BAF Battalion
    9th Burma Rifles Battalion
    101st RAF Base Force
    AVG Ground Echelon 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 15056 troops, 228 guns, 133 vehicles, Assault Value = 759

Defending force 40447 troops, 542 guns, 653 vehicles, Assault Value = 680



Assaulting units:
    9th Infantry Regiment
    16th Engineer Regiment
    20th Infantry Regiment
    48th Division
    I./33rd Inf Regt 
    1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    14th Army
    8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
    9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
    91st PA Infantry Division
    51st PA Infantry Division
    31st PA Infantry Division
    26th PS Cavalry Regiment
    194th Tank Battalion
    71st PA Infantry Division
    41st PA Infantry Division
    192nd Tank Battalion
    21st PA Infantry Division
    11th PA Infantry Division
    4th Marine Regiment
    1st PA Constabulary Regiment
    PAF Aviation 
    31st Infantry Regiment
    Clark Field USAAF Base Force
    Subic Bay Defenses 
    Asiatic Fleet 
    301st Construction Battalion
    II Philippine Corps Corps
    14th PS Engineer Regiment
    I Philippine Corps Corps
    Far East USAAF 
    200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
    Manila USAAF Base Force
    2nd PA Constabulary Regiment
    USAFFE 
    57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
    1st PI Base Force
    Cavite USN Base Force
    88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
    Provisional GMC Grp 
    301st PA Field Artillery Regiment


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Ground combat at Arawe (102,126)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 315 troops, 3 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 10

Defending force 312 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 6 

Allied adjusted defense: 1 

Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1 

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), leaders(-), preparation(-)
 fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)



Assaulting units:
    Bandasan SNLF

Defending units:
    Lark Battalion



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