2012年11月14日水曜日

柳州会戦を振り返る


昭和17年12月12日、機動部隊とRoi-Namurの陸攻隊とクエゼリンの二式大艇にウエーク島空襲を指示してありましたが、飛んでくれませんでした。またウエーク島の陸戦隊は休養中です。そして、ビルマ方面では前日の戦果のおかげで今日は連合軍の空襲はありませんでした。おおむね落ち着いた一日でしたが、小さな事件はいくつか。

夜のフェーズで触雷音が響きました。またウエーク島のヘクスで日本の艦船が機雷に接触したのかと思ったのですが、そうではなくシンガポールのヘクスでオランダのSS O23が触雷した模様です。連合軍潜水艦がセイロン方面から南シナ海やジャワ海に向かうのにマラッカ海峡を通過するのはよく目撃されますが、これまでシンガポールのヘクスは避けていました。というのも、昭和17年8月15日にSS O20が、8月17日にSS Snapperがそれぞれシンガポールのヘクスで触雷した事件があったからだと思います。それなのになぜまたシンガポールに侵入してきたのか?単に航路の指示を誤っただけならいいのですが、大胆にもシンガポールのヘクスに連合軍側の機雷を敷設する目的でやってきたんではと心配になってしまいました。ここ数ヶ月、連合軍の機雷には苦しめられているもんで、かなり疑心暗鬼になっています。いちおう掃海TFを仕立ててシンガポールのヘクスをパトロールさせることにしました。

中国戦線ではここ2日ほど柳州での攻撃はありませんでしたが、かわりに今日は柳州にサプライを輸送する道路のある、東隣のヘクスで攻撃がありました。素のAVは中国側3516、日本側496と7倍の大軍ですが、修正AVは1977と2578、オッズ比1対2で防衛に成功しました。ここは森林ヘクスで地形による防御ボーナスもあるのでdeviceの損害数も中国側の方が多く、なんとか確保できそうです。

柳州での12月2日以来の攻防の結果も表にまとめてみました。柳州の地形はDeveloped(農地などある程度近代化された郊外の地形を表している。ユニットはClearと同じ条件で移動できる。周囲の6方向のヘクスに対して主要道がつながっていると想定されている)で、地形効果が期待できません。またサプライの補給も週に一回と途絶えがちです。こういう悪条件のもと、12月2日の砲撃と3日以来7回の中国軍の攻撃で、すでに日本側は破壊されたdevice1423、disabledになったdevice3142と甚大な被害を受けました。中国側はそれぞれ618と4685です。破壊されたdeviceの数は日本側が2.5倍ほどなので支えきれないのではとずっと思っていましたが、こうやって見直してみると、中国軍の戦力も同じかまたは日本側以上のペースで疲弊していっているようで、オッズ比は改善してきています。中国側のdeviceの破壊数が少ないのは士気が低くて死守しない・できない特徴を反映していて、かわりに戦意喪失してしまう部隊が多いのがdisabledで反映されているんでしょうね。また今回の柳州会戦は苦戦だったとはいえ、中国側が今回の会戦に投入した戦力を温存し、昭和18年にもっと大規模に攻撃してくる可能性を考えれば、今の時期に攻撃してくれてありがというべきなのかなと思い始めています。


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 12, 42
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TF 315 encounters mine field at Wake Island (136,98)

Japanese Ships
      DMS W-19
      DMS W-10

23 mines cleared


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Sub attack near Saipan  at 110,94

Japanese Ships
      DD Natsugumo
      DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
      SS Triton

SS Triton launches 2 torpedoes at DD Natsugumo
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


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ASW attack near Aogashima  at 114,66

Japanese Ships
      DD Kiyonami

Allied Ships
      SS Drum

SS Drum is located by DD Kiyonami
DD Kiyonami fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kiyonami fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kiyonami fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kiyonami fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kiyonami attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub


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ASW attack near Truk  at 114,109

Japanese Ships
      APD Numakaze
      APD Shiokaze
      APD Shimakaze

Allied Ships
      SS Blackfish

SS Blackfish launches 2 torpedoes at APD Numakaze
APD Shimakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Shimakaze fails to find sub and abandons search
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
APD Numakaze fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


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Sub attack near Saipan  at 110,94

Japanese Ships
      DD Natsugumo
      DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
      SS Triton

SS Triton launches 2 torpedoes at DD Natsugumo
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


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TF 256 encounters mine field at Singapore (50,84)

Allied Ships
      SS O23, Mine hits 1



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Morning Air attack on Kweilin , at 76,54 

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 33 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 24
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 44

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 4 damaged

Allied ground losses:
      8 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 46

Aircraft Attacking:
      17 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      17 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       3 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      24 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       4 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       3 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Liuchow , at 74,55 

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 9
      Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 17
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 2 damaged

Allied ground losses:
      90 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 21

Aircraft Attacking:
      20 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       3 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       4 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
       5 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 11th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 14th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Liuchow  ...
Also attacking 7th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Liuchow  ...
Also attacking 30th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking Liuchow  ...


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Morning Air attack on 4th Chinese Corps, at 74,55 (Liuchow)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 29 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
      108 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
      18 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on 4th Chinese Corps, at 74,55 (Liuchow)

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
      48 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
      12 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Kweilin , at 76,54 

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 14

No Japanese losses

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
      14 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Liuchow , at 74,55 

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
      140 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
      16 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb

Also attacking 9th Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 39th Group Army ...
Also attacking 2nd Prov Chinese Corps ...
Also attacking 1st Group Army ...
Also attacking 2nd Group Army ...


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Morning Air attack on Kweilin , at 76,54 

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-21-IIa Sally: 2 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
      16 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Kweilin , at 76,54 

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-21-IIa Sally x 6

No Japanese losses

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
       6 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet * 
               Airfield Attack:  2 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Ndeni , at 120,143 

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 7 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
      B-26 Marauder x 10
      B-26B Marauder x 9

No Allied losses

Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 4

Aircraft Attacking:
       9 x B-26B Marauder bombing from 3000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  6 x 500 lb GP Bomb
      10 x B-26 Marauder bombing from 3000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  6 x 500 lb GP Bomb



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Morning Air attack on Maizuru 3rd SNLF, at 57,129 (Port Hedland)

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 7 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Allied aircraft
      A-29 Hudson x 6

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
      33 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
       6 x A-29 Hudson bombing from 7000 feet
               Ground Attack:  4 x 250 lb GP Bomb



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Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45 

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 14 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 27

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
      27 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 30000 feet



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Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45 

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 31

No Japanese losses

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
      31 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45 

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 21
      Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 30

Japanese aircraft losses
      Ki-49-IIa Helen: 2 damaged

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 5

Aircraft Attacking:
      15 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb
      15 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Afternoon Air attack on Akyab , at 54,45 

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      Ki-49-IIa Helen x 17

No Japanese losses

Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
      17 x Ki-49-IIa Helen bombing from 6000 feet
               Airfield Attack:  4 x 250 kg GP Bomb



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Afternoon Air attack on Maizuru 3rd SNLF, at 57,129 (Port Hedland)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
      Mitchell II x 8

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
      13 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
       8 x Mitchell II bombing from 7000 feet * 
               Ground Attack:  3 x 500 lb GP Bomb



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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Wake Island at 136,98

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 85 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 30

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
      PT-66, Shell hits 4, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
      18 x A6M5b Zero bombing from 100 feet
               Naval Attack:  2 x 60 kg GP Bomb

PT-66 dead in the water ...


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Sub attack near Saipan  at 110,94

Japanese Ships
      DD Natsugumo
      DD Kasumi

Allied Ships
      SS Triton

SS Triton launches 2 torpedoes at DD Natsugumo
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Kasumi fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub


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Ground combat at Nanyang (85,45)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 61961 troops, 605 guns, 246 vehicles, Assault Value = 2184

Defending force 165590 troops, 647 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4938

Japanese ground losses:
      16 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
      74 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
    110th Division
    35th Division
    36th Division
    70th Division
    32nd Division
    6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
    Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
    10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
    2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    12th Army
    3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    11th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
    82nd Chinese Corps
    19th Chinese Corps
    34th Chinese Corps
    77th Chinese Corps
    23rd Chinese Corps
    1st Chinese Corps
    17th Chinese Corps
    76th Chinese Corps
    16th Chinese Corps
    33rd Chinese Corps
    91st Chinese Corps
    61st Chinese Corps
    41st Chinese Corps
    90th Chinese Corps
    92nd Chinese Corps
    36th Chinese Corps
    57th Chinese Corps
    47th Chinese Corps
    3rd Chinese Corps
    4th Chinese Cavalry Corps
    6th Group Army
    2nd War Area 
    34th Group Army
    5th War Area 
    7th Group Army
    Red Chinese Army
    22nd Group Army
    8th Group Army
    4th Group Army
    19th Chinese Base Force


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Ground combat at 75,55 (near Kweilin)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 108891 troops, 506 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3516

Defending force 13375 troops, 177 guns, 775 vehicles, Assault Value = 496

Allied adjusted assault: 1977 

Japanese adjusted defense: 2578 

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: 

Japanese ground losses:
      1035 casualties reported
         Squads: 17 destroyed, 50 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
      Guns lost 17 (1 destroyed, 16 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 67 (18 destroyed, 49 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
      3453 casualties reported
         Squads: 12 destroyed, 387 disabled
         Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled

Assaulting units:
    53rd Chinese Corps
    75th Chinese Corps
    87th Chinese Corps
    32nd Chinese Corps
    2nd Chinese Corps
    67th Chinese Corps
    45th Chinese Corps
    73rd Chinese Corps
    8th Chinese Corps
    18th Chinese Corps
    94th Chinese Corps
    9th War Area 
    26th Group Army

Defending units:
    8th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    9th Armored Car Co 
    8th Armored Car Co 
    2nd Tank Division




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